
Bobby Slovic knows he needs to get Joe Mixon back on track.
The Texans’ run game, which has had an inconsistent offense all season, has sputtered in recent weeks. Mixon averaged 95.5 rushing yards per game through his first eight games of the season. In his last four appearances, it has dropped to 50.8, including a 14-carry, 57-yard effort in Saturday’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The way Slovic sees it, as Houston begins its homestretch by hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas, it needs to score more runs — even if the Texans are tempted to throw the ball more, as they have. It’s been two weeks.
Since Week 12, Mixon is averaging 15 carries, down from 21.5 in Week 11.
“Joe’s not going to get 100 yards when I’m giving him the ball 12 times,” Houston’s offensive coordinator said Monday. “In playoff football, the run game is going to be a huge part.”
Regaining an efficient rushing attack is all the more important for the Texans (9-6) with Tank Dale out for the season. The second-year wide receiver dislocated his kneecap and tore his ACL on a touchdown grab against Kansas City, injuries that have taken an emotional toll on Houston. Dell is one of the Texans’ most beloved players, being one of quarterback C.J. Stroud’s best friends.
From a football perspective, the franchise has lost its second best receiver.
According to Next Gen Stats, Dell ran a team-high 310 routes from a wide lineup. His absence will be most felt in the intermediate passing game, on passes between 10 and 19 air yards. That’s where Dell had 323 of NGS’s 667 receiving yards this season (48.4%), per NGS. That’s where he posted a plus-13.4% catch rate above expectations and added a plus-26.3 potential points in the receiving game. Dell and Nico Collins are the only Texas wide receivers with a higher-than-expected catch rate and receiving EPA in double figures (including Stefon Diggs, who sustained a season-ending knee injury in Week 8). Showing how much Houston has lost in playmaking. On the outside.
For further context, Stroud has targeted the middle of the field on 23.3% of his passes this season, per NGS, the 10th-highest rate in the league. He hit that stretch of the field at a league-best rate in his record-setting rookie season.
The intermediate level has been a big part of Stroud’s success to start his career, and now he will be without a major reason.
“You have to keep chopping wood, carrying water,” said Stroud. “In the situation we’re in, it’s not very often where you can be depressed in your emotions for very long. You just have to keep rolling.”
Enter Deonte Johnson, who the Texans claimed off waivers from the Ravens on Monday.
In 2023, his last full season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Johnson was the most effective in terms of EPA and receiving target per EPA in the middle of the field, a higher than expected catch rate, according to NGS. Of his 717 receiving yards, 310 of them (or 43.2%) came from intermediate passes. Also, 78.2% of his routes in 2023 came out of a wide formation, another indication that Johnson could be a good addition to replace Dell at this point in the season.
The issue is that Houston is guaranteed just three more games in 2024 — its final two regular-season games and a wild-card matchup. And Johnson looks unlikely to play against his former team, the Ravens, on Christmas, just two days after being claimed. In fact, coach DeMeco Ryans said Monday that it would be “irregular” for a freshman to get up to speed quickly in a short week to be able to play.
In fact, Johnson likely only has two guaranteed games with Houston, which is a very limited amount of time to adjust to Houston’s playbook and build a rapport with Stroud.
Even though Johnson, who caught just one pass for 6 yards during his six-game stay with drama-filled Baltimore, is motivated to end his 2024 contract year on a good note, the reality is that His impact on the playoff run figures to be small.
That means the Texans will need to lean heavily on Dalton Schultz to fill Dell’s void, and more will be expected from receivers John Machi, Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson. The defense, which has played at a Super Bowl-caliber level, will need to maintain its elite play. Houston will receive starting linebacker Aziz Al-Sheyer from suspension for next week’s regular-season finale against Tennessee, an added boost.
But getting Mixon and the run game back on track, for an injury-riddled team, starts Wednesday against Baltimore.
“Just because we’re in this situation doesn’t mean you feel sorry for yourself or anything like that,” Stroud said. “No, you’ve got to keep rolling, and I think playing will help us. Winning helps. Of course, it doesn’t fill the entire void of an injury, but it can make you feel better in the moment. I think the main thing for us is to … take these next weeks as seriously as we can and focus on one thing at a time.
“I think that’s the recipe for what the rest of the season can be.”
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for the Tennessean/USA Today Network, where he was the titans Beat the writer for a year and a half. He covered Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) before moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter @benyarthur.
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