With the second NBA Cup in the books, the exciting five-game Christmas Day series behind us and the 2025 calendar just days away, now is a perfect time to reflect on the most notable trends emerging during the first third part of the season.
The Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are as strong as we thought they would be, while the Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets have been extremely pleasant surprises, with both vying to be seen not just as good season stories, but as real title contenders . .
And with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Indiana Pacers, two of last season’s conference finalists, joining contenders like the Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns in conference play-in battles, the second could provide a wild ride for half the season. — especially with the trade deadline just six weeks away.
With the new year approaching, here are a handful of lessons learned from the first two months of the season, including a huge jump for San Antonio Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama, two contenders dealing with opposing issues surrounding their superstars and the future of the league’s three-point explosion.
The Lakers have been worse with LeBron James on the court
As a 22-year veteran and leading scorer in NBA history, most of James’ statistical achievements when he turns 40 next week will be firsts.
But in the midst of the Lakers’ up-and-down season — the dramatic victory over the Warriors on Christmas Day is the final chapter — LeBron has already accomplished something he’d rather reverse: for the first time since James’ rookie In the 2003-2004 season, his team is worse when he is on the field than when he is not on the field.
It’s common knowledge that plus-minus stats can be noisy, as they’re often influenced by the many players sharing the court, but the Lakers’ numbers when James plays without Anthony Davis (minus-12.1 points per 100 possessions ) are perhaps the most illustrative – and problematic. It represents a reversal of as much as 17 points per 100 possessions from last season. In Monday’s loss to the Pistons, for example, Los Angeles was plus-17 in James-Davis minutes, but minus-18 in the minutes James played without his partner.
James is at minus-107 overall, second-worst in the NBA among those playing for a team that would be in the postseason if the season ended today. (Only Denver’s Julian Strawther had a lower plus-minus heading into the Christmas Games at minus-117.) That’s in stark contrast to the plus-218 James posted last season or the plus-214 he posted in 2022. 23.
The bottom line: The 17-13 Lakers have been 8.7 points worse per 100 possessions with James on the court than without him. That huge net ratings difference is equal to that between the 14-14 Wolves and the 7-22 Charlotte Hornets.
Nearly all of that margin comes on defense, where opponents are scoring 115.8 points per 100 possessions against Los Angeles when James plays, the second-highest mark among the Lakers’ rotation players. (Only Dalton Knecht’s 116.2 is higher.) But the team gives up just 106.5 points per 100 when James takes a breather, which on a team scale would be a top-five mark in the league.
James, who played through a nagging foot injury, played a few games away earlier this month and has looked better in defense since his return. Los Angeles has had the profile of a top-five defense in the four games since James returned.
Still, the Lakers face an uphill battle to become a contender in the West. A big factor will be whether James and the Lakers defend better in his minutes on the court.
Wemby’s DPOY campaign has begun
The progression of the 20-year-old’s game can be seen in almost every aspect every night; especially on defense, where he has looked dominant even compared to his impressive rookie season.
Over the last four games, the Frenchman has put together 29 blocks, and his total of 95 this season is 31 more than the closest player. Equally impressive, he’s only been whistled once all season. (It helps that he has an average wrist height of 3.42 meters during his games, the highest in the NBA, per Second Spectrum.)
But it is not only the images that Wembanyama returns to the sender that he influences. In addition to the deterrent effect it has on shooters, Wembanyama also forces drivers to shoot rashly due to their fear of rejection. He keeps shooters at the basket with a dismal 48.9% shooting rate, nearly 14 percentage points worse than their average. (Both stats are the best in the league among players who have challenged 150 such shots this season.) By comparison, last season players shot 53.7% against Wembanyama, which was about 11 percentage points lower than their average – good for 11th place. the best in the NBA at the time.
Denver has a painfully obvious problem
After a rough, ugly 2-3 start, with the first two wins coming in overtime against the rebuilding Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors, the Nuggets won five of their next six. Still, the team hasn’t solved its biggest problem: It can’t hold its own when its three-time MVP takes the seat.
Nikola Jokic, who averaged a career-high 30.9 points, 12.5 rebounds and 9.7 assists, was fantastic, even by his own MVP-caliber standards. Denver has a 211-point lead over its opponents with him on the court, but is outscored by 118 points when he’s on the bench. Look no further than the December 3 game against the Golden State Warriors, where Denver gained Jokic minutes by 23 but lost his bench minutes by 19.
It’s been a familiar story all season for the Nuggets, who have lost the second quarter while their second string generally gets the most playing time, averaging 9.1 points per 100 possessions. Only the Wizards (4-23), Hornets (7-22) and the New Orleans Pelicans (5-25) have managed to do worse. Even with free agent rookie Russell Westbrook playing well, the Nuggets’ bench is among the weaker units in the league, even when the team’s second- or third-best player is sharing the court with the reserves.
Example: When Jamal Murray plays with the other four starters on the bench, Denver is outscored by 5.1 points per 100 possessions in 75 minutes. Even worse, when Michael Porter Jr. with no other starters on the court, the Nuggets are overwhelmed by more than 60 points per 100 possessions in 65 minutes. Neither bodes well for a club that is still assessing what it has in terms of role players but will have to survive at least a few minutes per game without Jokic on the court in the postseason.
The NBA is investigating the ongoing three-point explosion
Last week, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said he and his staff are paying attention to the increased role of the three-point shot in sports. But should they? Do long-distance jumpers get more attention than they deserve? The answer is mixed.
Yes, teams are taking 37.6 3s per game – up from 35.1 last season – the highest average in league history. But at the same time, jumpers as a whole are actually down from where they were two seasons ago (53.4% of all shot attempts, down from 53.8% in 2022-2023).
Perhaps most interestingly, the league-wide quantified shot quality (qSQ) on 3s – that is, the probability of a shot going in, taking into account a shooter’s distance and proximity to the nearest defender – is the highest since Tracking data from Second Spectrum was first recorded in 2013-2014. As looks continue to improve and become more efficient, teams have little reason to cut back on them.
If anything, it suggests the league needs to do more — perhaps allowing more physicality on defense — to better equip defenses trying to cover an increasingly spaced floor.