
Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
College Football Playoff odds in the first round couldn’t be much better for the public betting public, as straight bets and favorites pay out with relative ease.
Caesars Sports head of football trading Joe Faisal said, “Bettors were happy with every favorite cover. And the action was great, close to standard NFL games.” “We’re excited to see these early games that really matter.”
The December 31/January 1 quarter-finals matter even more.
Will the favorites continue to roll, or will a big ‘dog like Boise State or Arizona State spring an upset?
Bettors provide their insights on college football playoff quarterfinal odds.
Ahead of the curve
Most sports books opened No. 7 Notre Dame as a slim favorite against No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Part of the reasoning behind it: Georgia quarterback Carson Beck won’t be under center.
Beck suffered an elbow injury in the Bulldogs’ 22–19 overtime win vs. Texas in the SEC Championship Game. He had surgery on Monday, so his season is over. Redshirt sophomore Gunner Stockton will lead the Bulldogs against the Fighting Irish.
But where other sportsbooks zigged, Caesars Sports zigged marginally, with Georgia opening at -1.5. And the subsequent point-diffusion movement on other books proved Caesar right, as everyone fell into line.
“We went in with Georgia as the favorite. That’s who we think is the better team,” Faisal said. “We were on the right side of the trick.”
Caesars briefly moved to -2 Georgia on Monday before returning to -1.5 for the 8:45 a.m. kickoff on New Year’s Day.
“The strength of this Georgia team isn’t the quarterback — it’s the players around him,” Faisal said. “It’s a big step up in class for Notre Dame, especially for the defense that the Irish are going to face.
“Right now, the action we’re seeing is pretty good all around. I’m not sure where the bookies are going to lean, but this is the game we’re most looking forward to.”
Regardless of Faisal’s opinion of Georgia, there’s a dichotomy worth pointing out: Notre Dame is one of the best spread teams in the country, and Georgia is one of the worst.
The Fighting Irish are 12-1 straight up (SU) and 11-2 against the spread (ATS). Georgia is 11-2 SU and a dismal 4-9 ATS.
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New Year’s Eve Party
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State kicks off the CFP quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve at 7:30 pm ET. The Broncos get a bye and the higher seed, but oddsmakers have the Nittany Lions as 11-point favorites in the Fiesta Bowl.
“We opened Penn State -10 and briefly went down to -9.5. And then we saw action to pull it up to -11,” Faisal said. “Eleven is no-man’s land. It will probably be between 10-13 by the end of this week.”
Boise State is 12-1 SU/7-5-1 ATS, while Penn State — coming off a 38-10 margin over No. 10 SMU as a 9-point home favorite — is 12-2 SU/7- 7 is ATS. Neither team has been active in covering the bettors, but Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its last six games.
“Right now, there’s not a lot of action,” Feasel said. “It’s mostly Boise State money and under money so far. But the public will be the favorite.”
Bet the big dog
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State has the biggest point spread in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds. The Longhorns (12-2 SU/8-6 ATS) are 14-point favorites against the Sun Devils (11-2 SU and ATS).
Texas is coming off a 38-24 first-round upset of No. 12 seed Clemson as a 13.5-point home favorite. Arizona State received a first-round bye in the Peach Bowl, set for 1 p.m. ET New Year’s Day.
“On this one, we’re seeing some ‘dog money’ on Arizona State, especially on the moneyline. We’ll see if that holds true,” Feisel said, adding that he expects Texas to get the point spread. will have considerable public support.
The Sun Devils are +400 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet will pay $400 (total payout $500) if ASU pulls off the upset. It’s a big ask, but if Arizona State is up to the task it would be a great conclusion.
Ohio State Buckeyes crush Tennessee: How effective was their gameplan?

The rose is coming
The Rose Bowl, with kickoff on New Year’s Day at 5 p.m. ET, almost looks like a traditional matchup. Oregon, formerly of the Pac-12, meets traditional Big Ten powerhouse Ohio State. All but two teams are now in the Big Ten.
Plus, they’ve already met once this season. In Week 7, the Buckeyes went to Eugene as 3.5-point favorites. But the Ducks won 32-31.
Now, at a neutral site, Ohio State (11-2 SU/7-6 ATS) is again the favorite, despite Oregon’s perfect record (13-0 SU/7-6 ATS). Caesars opened the bookies -1 and is already up to -2.5.
“This is a revenge spot, and Ohio State definitely wanted this game. But this Oregon team is no slouch,” Faisal said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the line gets to 3. Ohio State is action and a lot of overaction.”
Texas beats Clemson: Did Quinn Evers and the Longhorns make a statement in a 38-24 win?

I love big bets and I can’t lie
As mentioned a couple of times in this space recently, the largest reported bet on College Football Playoff championship futures has landed on Texas. A Louisiana customer of Caesars Sports put down $1.5 million on the Longhorns at +390 to win the national title.
Texas picked up win No. 1, dispatching Clemson. If the Longhorns win three more, the bettor will reap a whopping $5.85 million, for a total payout of $7.35 million.
But some of the more interesting bets came early in the season and at the time were very short bets on teams with long odds.
For example, on Sept. 9, after Notre Dame’s shocking 16-14 home loss at Northern Illinois, a Caesars bookie decided to jump on the oddsmakers’ immediate reaction. The customer placed $500 on the Fighting Irish at +8000 (80/1) to win the national title.
If Notre Dame goes the distance, the bettor makes a $40,000 profit.
The Fighting Irish are now +550 co-fifth favorites out of the remaining eight teams. This means it will now take a bet of $7,273 to make a profit of $40,000.
With Notre Dame vs. Georgia expected in the quarterfinals, this is a great ticket to have on hand. We’ll see if that continues until New Year’s Day.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a popular journalist in the national sports betting space. He is based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in the 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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